Projected Shifts in Coffea arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions Due to Climate Change

Titre Projected Shifts in Coffea arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions Due to Climate Change
Titre traduit Évolution des projets concernant la pertinence du café arabica dans les grandes régions productrices en raison du changement climatique
Lien hypertexte Site de journals.plos.org
Date 2015/04
Pagination ou Durée d'écoute 13 p.
Résumé Abstract : “Regional studies have shown that climate change will affect climatic suitability for Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) within current regions of production. Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will decrease yield, reduce quality and increase pest and disease pressure. This is the first global study on the impact of climate change on suitability to grow Arabica coffee. We modeled the global distribution of Arabica coffee under changes in climatic suitability by 2050s as projected by 21 global circulation models. The results suggest decreased areas suitable for Arabica coffee in Mesoamerica at lower altitudes. In South America close to the equator higher elevations could benefit, but higher latitudes lose suitability. Coffee regions in Ethiopia and Kenya are projected to become more suitable but those in India and Vietnam to become less suitable. Globally, we predict decreases in climatic suitability at lower altitudes and high latitudes, which may shift production among the major regions that produce Arabica coffee”.

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